Tuesday, August 12, 2008

China's strengths

I was talking to a Columbian who asked whether the US would remain the dominant superpower with China coming up. I said there is no reason why the US shouldn't for at least the near term, but that we won't. Mostly I think it is a mindset that the US lacks.

The US has the following advantages:
  • best universities in the world
  • more second tier universities than anywhere else
  • good system of laws and government
  • high standard of living
  • good infrastructure
  • entrepreneurial spirit
  • sophisticated financial systems
  • many very good companies
What does China have going for it:
  • lots and lots of people (sort of a disadvantage in some ways too)
  • value education and hard work
  • are frugal: savings rate pushing 16% (compared to US <2%)
  • communism is a blip in Chinese history -- they were never really communists
  • the attitude of getting things done
  • improving standard of living
  • improving universities
  • no wasted energy spent on politics (not my favorite feature)
They use our universities well as over 65% of graduate students in math, science, and engineering in the US are foreign nationals. A large number of them are Chinese. We pay for their education since science and engineering post-graduates don't pay for their education. They are paid to study largely by US government grants.

The Chinese are very frugal and always looking to save money. When the economy turns bad for a bit, they have savings to fall back on. Having a savings rate 8x the US means that the country can afford to do things that the US can't. We live on credit, they pay cash. Luckily for us, the Chinese government is buying US treasury bonds to pay for all the things we haven't saved for.

I think the US government wastes a lot of time (time is money) being partisan. Both sides just seem satisfied obstructing the other side waiting until they have a majority. There is no effort to move things forward in the best interest of the country unless it is a purely Democrat or purely Republican initiative. It means we sit on our hands waiting until the number of votes to be right. Wait too long and you lose. The US government and its people have somewhat lost a 'get-it-done' attitude.

It will be an interesting wake up call when China lands a man on the moon in about ten years.

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